{"id":3252,"date":"2020-04-16T18:53:08","date_gmt":"2020-04-16T16:53:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nyje.al\/?p=3252"},"modified":"2024-09-06T14:52:00","modified_gmt":"2024-09-06T12:52:00","slug":"ekonomia-normale-nuk-do-te-kthehet-kurre-me","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nyje.al\/sq\/ekonomia-normale-nuk-do-te-kthehet-kurre-me\/","title":{"rendered":"Ekonomia normale nuk do t\u00eb kthehet kurr\u00eb m\u00eb"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Autori<\/strong><\/span>: Adam Tooze,<\/strong> publikuar me 9 prill 2020, n\u00eb revist\u00ebn Foreign Policy |<\/strong><\/em><\/span>
P\u00ebrktheu<\/span>: Pavjo Gjini | Redaktoi<\/span>: Genc Shehu<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e fundit nga ShBA-ja provojn\u00eb se bota \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb r\u00ebnien e lir\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb thik\u00ebt se kurdo \u2013 dhe manualet e vjetra ekonomike dhe politike nuk vlejn\u00eb m\u00eb.
<\/span>Teksa filloi mbyllja prej koronavirusit, impulsi i par\u00eb ishte p\u00ebr t\u00eb m\u00ebtuar analogji historike \u2013 1914, 1929, 1941? Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb jav\u00ebt kaluan, ajo q\u00eb doli gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb n\u00eb pah ishte risia historike e tronditjes n\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebn po jetojm\u00eb. Si rezultat i pandemis\u00eb s\u00eb virusit korona, ekonomia amerikane pritet t\u00eb tkurret me rreth 25%, po aq sa n\u00eb Depresionin e Madh. Por nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb tkurrja e pas 1929-s u shtri n\u00eb nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb se kat\u00ebr vite, shp\u00ebrndarja e koronavirusit do t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb tre muajve t\u00eb ardhsh\u00ebm. Kurr\u00eb nuk ka patur nj\u00eb karambol t\u00eb k\u00ebtill\u00eb. Ka di\u00e7ka t\u00eb re n\u00eb faqe t\u00eb tok\u00ebs. Dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb tmerruese.<\/span><\/p>

Vet\u00ebm pes\u00eb jav\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb, n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb marsit, papun\u00ebsia n\u00eb ShBA ishte n\u00eb pika rekord t\u00eb ulta. Deri nga fundi i marsit ajo spikati diku rreth 13%. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb shifra m\u00eb e lart\u00eb e regjistruar prej Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore. Nuk e dim\u00eb shifr\u00ebn reale meq\u00eb sistemi yn\u00eb i regjistrimit t\u00eb papun\u00ebsis\u00eb nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb ngritur p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjurmuar nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj shpejt\u00ebsie. P\u00ebr t\u00eb enjte me radh\u00eb, numri i atyre q\u00eb plot\u00ebsonin formular\u00ebt fillestar\u00eb p\u00ebr sigurimet e papun\u00ebsis\u00eb u rrit si fillim n\u00eb 3.3 milion\u00eb, pastaj n\u00eb 6.6 milion\u00eb dhe tani me 6.6 milion\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb. Si\u00e7 ka v\u00ebrejtur ekonomisti Justin Wolfers n\u00eb New York Times<\/em>, me ritmin aktual papun\u00ebsia n\u00eb ShBA po rritet me af\u00ebrsisht 0.5% n\u00eb dit\u00eb. Nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e paimagjinueshme q\u00eb shifra e p\u00ebrgjithshme e papun\u00ebsis\u00eb t\u00eb mund t\u00eb arrij\u00eb 30% deri n\u00eb ver\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>

Lajmet e s\u00eb enjtes konfirmojn\u00eb se ekonomit\u00eb per\u00ebndimore p\u00ebrballen me nj\u00eb tronditje shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb thell\u00eb dhe t\u00eb eg\u00ebr se kan\u00eb p\u00ebrjetuar ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb deri m\u00eb tani. Ciklet e zakonshme t\u00eb biznesit p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht fillojn\u00eb me sektor\u00ebt m\u00eb t\u00eb paq\u00ebndruesh\u00ebm t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb \u2013 pasurit\u00eb e patundshme, nd\u00ebrtimtaria, p\u00ebr shembull, ose inxhinieria e r\u00ebnd\u00eb q\u00eb varet nga investime biznesore \u2013 ose sektor\u00ebt q\u00eb jan\u00eb t\u00eb varur nga konkurrenca globale, si industria e automjeteve motorrik\u00eb. N\u00eb total, k\u00ebta sektor\u00eb pun\u00ebsojn\u00eb m\u00eb pak se \u00e7erekun e forc\u00ebs pun\u00ebtore. R\u00ebnia e p\u00ebrqendruar n\u00eb k\u00ebta sektor\u00eb transmetohet n\u00eb pjes\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb si tronditje e heshtur.<\/span><\/p>

Mbyllja prej virusit korona ndikon drejtp\u00ebrdrejt sh\u00ebrbim-shitjet, pasurit\u00eb e paluajtshme, edukimin, arg\u00ebtimin, restorantet \u2013 ku 80% e amerikan\u00ebve punojn\u00eb sot. Rrjedhimisht rezultati \u00ebsht\u00eb i menj\u00ebhersh\u00ebm dhe katastrofik. N\u00eb sektor\u00eb si i shitjeve me pakic\u00eb, i cili s\u00eb fundmi ka qen\u00eb n\u00ebn trysnin\u00eb e fort\u00eb t\u00eb konkurrenc\u00ebs online<\/em>, mbyllja e p\u00ebrkohshme mund t\u00eb dal\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb fatale. N\u00eb shum\u00eb raste, dyqanet e mbyllura n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb marsit nuk do t\u00eb rihapen. K\u00ebto vende pune do t\u00eb humbasin p\u00ebrgjithnj\u00eb. Miliona amerikan\u00eb dhe familjet e tyre po p\u00ebrballen me katastrof\u00ebn.<\/span>
Tronditja nuk kufizohet te Shtetet e Bashkuara. Shum\u00eb ekonomi europiane po zbusin efektet e izolimit duke subvencionuar pun\u00eb afat-shkurtra. Kjo do ta moderoj\u00eb spikatjen e papun\u00ebsis\u00eb. Mir\u00ebpo kolapsi n\u00eb veprimtarin\u00eb ekonomike nuk mund t\u00eb maskohet. Veriu i Italis\u00eb nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm destinacion luksoz turistik. P\u00ebrb\u00ebn 50% t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb italiane. PBB-ja gjermane pritet t\u00eb bie m\u00eb shum\u00eb sesa ajo e ShBA-s\u00eb, e t\u00ebrhequr zvarr\u00eb prej var\u00ebsis\u00eb nga eksportet. Parashikimet e fundit nga Organizata p\u00ebr Bashk\u00ebpunim dhe Zhvillim Ekonomik jan\u00eb apokaliptike p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjith\u00eb pa dallim. M\u00eb e goditura prej t\u00eb gjithave mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb Japonia, edhe pse virusi ka patur ndikim t\u00eb moderuar atje.<\/span><\/p>

N\u00eb vendet e pasura t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn mund t\u00eb tentojm\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrllogarisim af\u00ebrsisht d\u00ebmin. Kina ishte e para e cila nisi izolimin, m\u00eb 23 janar. Shifrat e fundit zyrtare tregojn\u00eb 6.2% papun\u00ebsi n\u00eb Kin\u00eb, numri m\u00eb i lart\u00eb prej kur ka nisur regjistrimi n\u00eb vitet \u201890, kur Partia Komuniste Kineze me hezitime pranoi se papun\u00ebsia nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb problem vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr bot\u00ebn kapitaliste. Por kjo shif\u00ebr qartazi \u00ebsht\u00eb zvog\u00eblim flagrant i kriz\u00ebs n\u00eb Kin\u00eb. Jo-zyrtarisht ndoshta rreth 205 milion\u00eb pun\u00ebtor\u00eb emigrant\u00eb jan\u00eb liruar me leje, m\u00eb shum\u00eb se \u00e7ereku i forc\u00ebs pun\u00ebtore kineze. Pyetja e \u00e7dokujt \u00ebsht\u00eb si mundet dikush t\u00eb p\u00ebrllogaris\u00eb d\u00ebmin p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb indiane nga izolimi i beft\u00eb 21-ditor nga Kryeministri Narendra Modi. Prej forc\u00ebs pun\u00ebtore indiane 471 milion\u00ebshe, vet\u00ebm 19% mbulohen nga sigurimet shoq\u00ebrore, 2 nga 3 nuk kan\u00eb kontrata formale pun\u00ebsimi dhe t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn 100 milion\u00eb jan\u00eb pun\u00ebtor\u00eb migrant\u00eb. Shum\u00eb prej tyre jan\u00eb shpjer\u00eb me turr n\u00ebp\u00ebr fshatrat nga vin\u00eb. Asgj\u00eb e till\u00eb nuk ka ndodhur prej ndarjes s\u00eb 1947-s.<\/span>
Pasojat ekonomike prej k\u00ebtyre dramave t\u00eb shp\u00ebrmasuara njer\u00ebzore sfidojn\u00eb \u00e7far\u00ebdolloj llogarie. Kemi mbetur me statistik\u00ebn ton\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebrzitshme, por megjithat\u00eb jo m\u00eb pak t\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonshme, q\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb vit, p\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb q\u00eb kur filluan t\u00eb llogariten pas Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb deri diku t\u00eb besueshme t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e PBB-ve, ekonomit\u00eb e tregut n\u00eb lul\u00ebzim do t\u00eb tkurren. Nj\u00eb model i t\u00ebr\u00eb i zhvillimit ekonomik global ka frenuar pinc\u00eb n\u00eb vend.<\/span><\/p>

Ky kolaps nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb rezultat i nj\u00eb krize financiare. Nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb as rezultat i drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb i pandemis\u00eb. Kolapsi \u00ebsht\u00eb rezultat i nj\u00eb zgjedhjeje t\u00eb lir\u00eb t\u00eb politik\u00ebb\u00ebrjes, \u00e7ka \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb vetvete rr\u00ebnj\u00ebsisht risi. Mesa duket, \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e leht\u00eb t\u00eb ndal\u00ebsh nj\u00eb ekonomi sesa ta stimulosh at\u00eb. Por p\u00ebrpjekjet q\u00eb po b\u00ebhen p\u00ebr zbutjen e efekteve jan\u00eb vet\u00eb historikisht t\u00eb paprecedent\u00eb. N\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara, paketa stimuluese e Kongresit e kaluar vet\u00ebm ca dit\u00eb pas fillimit t\u00eb izolimit \u00ebsht\u00eb me shum\u00eb distanc\u00eb m\u00eb e madhja n\u00eb historin\u00eb e koh\u00ebs s\u00eb paqes s\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb. An\u00eb e mban\u00eb bot\u00ebs, v\u00ebrehen l\u00ebvizje p\u00ebr t\u2019i hapur kuletat. Gjermania konservatore n\u00eb politika fiskale ka shpallur emergjenc\u00eb dhe ka hequr limitin mbi borxhin publik. Marr\u00eb s\u00eb bashku, po d\u00ebshmojm\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekjen m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb kombinuar fiskale t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarr\u00eb q\u00eb prej Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore. Efektet e saj do t\u00eb ndihen n\u00eb jav\u00ebt dhe muajt n\u00eb vazhdim. Sakaq \u00ebsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb se dora e par\u00eb e tyre ka gjas\u00eb t\u00eb mos mjaftoj\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>

Detyr\u00eb edhe m\u00eb urgjente \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb parandalojm\u00eb q\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsimi t\u00eb kthehet n\u00eb kriz\u00eb financiare t\u00eb st\u00ebrmadhe. Rreth e rrotull po thuhet se Rezerva Federale e ShBA-s\u00eb, n\u00ebn drejtimin e Jerome Powell, po ndjek manualet e 2008-s. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebrtet\u00eb. Dit\u00eb pas dite, ajo pjell programe t\u00eb reja p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrkrahur \u00e7do cep t\u00eb tregut financiar. Por k\u00ebtu dallon shkalla nd\u00ebrhyrjeve t\u00eb Rezerv\u00ebs Federale. N\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb kund\u00ebrveproj\u00eb ndaj tronditjes epike t\u00eb mbylljes, ajo ka mobiluzar nj\u00eb val\u00eb t\u00eb st\u00ebrmadhe likuiditeti. N\u00eb fund t\u00eb marsit, Rezerva Federale po blinte asete me nj\u00eb rit\u00ebm prej 90 bilion\u00eb dollar\u00eb n\u00eb dit\u00eb. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb brenda nj\u00eb dite sesa Rezerva Federale e Ben Bernankes-it blinte n\u00eb shumic\u00ebn e muajve. P\u00ebr \u00e7do sekond, Rezerva Federale shk\u00ebmbente pothuajse nj\u00eb milion dollar\u00eb n\u00eb letra me vler\u00eb t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetura nga hipoteka dhe nga Thesari [i Shtetit]. N\u00eb m\u00ebngjesin e 9 prillit, n\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjtin \u00e7ast kur shifra m\u00eb e fundit e tmerrshme e papun\u00ebsis\u00eb u botua, Rezerva Federale b\u00ebri me dije se po l\u00ebshonte nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr 2.3 trilion\u00eb dollar\u00eb n\u00eb blerje asetesh.<\/span><\/p>

Ky veprim i bujsh\u00ebm dhe i menj\u00ebhersh\u00ebm kund\u00ebrbalancues deri tani ka parandaluar shkrirjen e menj\u00ebhershme globale financare, mir\u00ebpo tash p\u00ebrballemi me nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb t\u00eb zgjatur ku r\u00ebnia e konsumit dhe investimeve e shtyn edhe m\u00eb tutje tkurrjen. 73% e familjeve amerikane raportojn\u00eb se kan\u00eb p\u00ebsuar humbje n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhura p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb marsit. P\u00ebr shum\u00eb prej tyre humbjet kan\u00eb qen\u00eb katastrofike duke i ngar\u00eb drejt nevoj\u00ebs akute, mospagesave dhe falimentit. Kundravajtjet n\u00eb borxhin e konsumatorit padyshim do t\u00eb rriten, duke \u00e7uar n\u00eb nj\u00eb d\u00ebm t\u00eb shtuar mbi sistemin financiar. Shpenzimet q\u00eb mund t\u00eb shtyhen p\u00ebr m\u00eb von\u00eb do t\u00eb shtyhen. Konsumi i naft\u00ebs n\u00eb Europ\u00eb ka r\u00ebn\u00eb me 88%. Tregu i automjeteve \u00ebsht\u00eb shakull i vdekur. Fabrikat e automjeteve p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb Europ\u00ebs dhe Azis\u00eb po rrin\u00eb k\u00ebmb\u00ebkryq n\u00eb magazina p\u00ebrplot me automjete t\u00eb pashitura.<\/span><\/p>

Sa m\u00eb gjat\u00eb q\u00eb ta mbajm\u00eb mbylljen, aq m\u00eb e thell\u00eb vraga ndaj ekonomis\u00eb dhe aq m\u00eb e ngadalt\u00eb rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbja. N\u00eb Kin\u00eb, veprimtaria normale ekonomike po kthehet me hapa t\u00eb vegj\u00ebl. Mir\u00ebpo, duke marr\u00eb parasysh rrezikun e val\u00ebs s\u00eb dyt\u00eb a t\u00eb tret\u00eb t\u00eb plasjes s\u00eb epidemis\u00eb, askush nuk ia ka iden\u00eb sesa shpejt dhe deri n\u00eb \u00e7\u2019mas\u00eb do t\u00eb mund kthehet jeta e sigurt\u00eb normale. Duket se me gjas\u00eb, p\u00ebrve\u00e7se n\u00eb rast t\u00eb ndonj\u00eb p\u00ebrparimi dramatik mjek\u00ebsor, kufizimet e l\u00ebvizjes do t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb nevojshme t\u00eb mbesin nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb menaxhuar pabarazin\u00eb e p\u00ebrmbajtjes [s\u00eb s\u00ebmundjes ngjit\u00ebse]. Nj\u00eb sh\u00ebrim i zgjatur dhe \u00e7alues duket shum\u00eb m\u00eb tep\u00ebr i mundsh\u00ebm sesa nj\u00eb rim\u00ebk\u00ebmbje e p\u00ebrnj\u00ebhershme n\u00eb trajt\u00eb \u201cV\u201d-je.<\/span>
Edhe kur t\u00eb ket\u00eb rinisur prodhimi dhe pun\u00ebsimi aktual, do t\u00eb na duhet t\u00eb merremi me kok\u00ebdhembjet e m\u00ebpasshme financiare p\u00ebr vite me radh\u00eb. Argumenti rreth politikave fiskale rrall\u00eb po hapet n\u00eb mes t\u00eb k\u00ebtij zjarri. N\u00eb nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb e leht\u00eb t\u00eb pajtohesh p\u00ebr t\u00eb shpenzuar para. Por kjo betej\u00eb po afron. Jemi p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb n\u00eb spikatjen m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb t\u00eb borxhit publik n\u00eb koh\u00eb paqeje. H\u00ebp\u00ebrh\u00eb po e parkojm\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb borxh n\u00eb regjistrat e bankave qendrore. K\u00ebto banka munden po ashtu t\u00eb mbajn\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt normat e intersit, \u00e7ka do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se kthimet e borxhit nuk do t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb tejfryra. Por kjo shmang \u00e7\u00ebshtjen se \u00e7far\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebjm\u00eb me to. P\u00ebr mendjen e zakont\u00eb borxhi tek e fundit duhet shlyhet n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet tepricave t\u00eb p\u00ebrftuara me rritje t\u00eb taksave dhe shkurtime t\u00eb shpenzimeve.<\/span><\/p>

Historia sugjeron se, megjithat\u00eb, ka po ashtu alternativa m\u00eb radikale. Nj\u00ebra mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb hov inflacioni, edhe pse se si do send\u00ebrtohej kjo duke mar\u00eb parasysh kushtet mbizot\u00ebruese t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb. Nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr do t\u00eb ishte falja e borxhit, eufemiz\u00ebm p\u00ebr falimentim publik (i cili nuk do t\u00eb ishte aq drastik sa ting\u00ebllon n\u00ebse prek borxhet q\u00eb mbahen n\u00eb llogarin\u00eb e bank\u00ebs qendrore). Disa kan\u00eb sugjeruar se do t\u00eb ishte m\u00eb e thjesht\u00eb p\u00ebr bankat qendrore t\u00eb nd\u00ebrprisnin pun\u00ebn e blerjes s\u00eb borxhit t\u00eb l\u00ebshuar nga qeveria dhe n\u00eb vend t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj thjesht t\u2019u kreditojn\u00eb qeverive nj\u00eb balanc\u00eb gjigande keshi.<\/span><\/p>

Dhe m\u00eb 9 prill kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb pik\u00ebrisht \u00e7ka njoftoi Banka e Anglis\u00eb se do t\u00eb b\u00ebnte. Praktikisht, kjo n\u00ebnkupton se banka qendrore thjesht po printon para. Thjesht fakti q\u00eb kjo po merret n\u00eb konsiderat\u00eb \u2013 dhe nga nj\u00eb qeveri konservatore \u2013 shp\u00ebrfaq sa e skajshme \u00ebsht\u00eb situata. Po ashtu \u00ebsht\u00eb simptomatike se, n\u00eb vend t\u00eb britmave t\u00eb t\u00ebrbuara apo shitjeve t\u00eb menj\u00ebhershme n\u00eb panik, vendimi i Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Anglis\u00eb deri m\u00eb tani ka prodhuar pak m\u00eb shum\u00eb sesa thjesht ngritjen e supeve prej tregjeve financiare. Ata nuk po kan\u00eb shum\u00eb iluzione mbi akrobacit\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb gjitha bankat qendrore po performojn\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>

Kjo qasje e dor\u00ebhequr ndihmon nga k\u00ebndv\u00ebshtrimi i luftimit t\u00eb kriz\u00ebs. Por mos prisni q\u00eb qet\u00ebsia t\u00eb zgjas\u00eb. Kur t\u00eb hiqet kapaku, politika do t\u00eb rikthehet dhe po ashtu argumentet rreth \u201cbarr\u00ebs s\u00eb borxhit\u201d dhe \u201cq\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebris\u00eb\u201d. Dhe duke marr\u00eb parasysh shkall\u00ebn e detyrimeve q\u00eb jan\u00eb akumuluar tashm\u00eb duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrgatitemi q\u00eb situata do t\u00eb r\u00ebndohet. Ajo \u00e7ka mendonim se dinim mbi ekonomin\u00eb dhe financat na \u00ebsht\u00eb trazuar radikalisht. Prej tronditjes s\u00eb kriz\u00ebs financiare t\u00eb 2008-s, \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrfolur shum\u00eb p\u00ebr nevoj\u00ebn p\u00ebr t\u2019u ballafaquar me pasiguri radikale \u2013 nj\u00eb lloj rreziku ndaj t\u00eb cilit nuk mund t\u00eb caktosh nj\u00eb probabilitet matematikor. P\u00ebrnj\u00ebmend, caktimi i nj\u00eb probabiliteti specifik mundet madje t\u2019u jap\u00eb zem\u00ebr vet\u00ebk\u00ebnaq\u00ebsis\u00eb s\u00eb cek\u00ebt dhe ndjesis\u00eb s\u00eb rrem\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00ebdijenis\u00eb.<\/span><\/p>

Pas tronditjeve t\u00eb Brexit-it dhe zgjedhjes s\u00eb Donald Trump-it, \u00ebsht\u00eb folur shum\u00eb rreth politikave t\u00eb paparashikueshme t\u00eb populizmit. Politikat agresive tregtare t\u00eb Trump-it dhe p\u00ebrshkall\u00ebzimi deri n\u00eb rivalitet gjeopolitik me Kin\u00ebn shushat\u00ebn supozimet konvencionale rreth t\u00eb ardhmes s\u00eb globalizimit. Deri m\u00eb 2019-n kjo pasiguri arriti pik\u00ebn n\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebn po ndikonte investimin dhe rrezikonte nj\u00eb re\u00e7esion. Bankat qendrore, t\u00eb cilat kishin menduar se ishin n\u00eb rrug\u00ebn e normalizimit dhe t\u00eb ndreqjes s\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyrjeve dramatike t\u00eb b\u00ebra pas 2008-s, u detyruan t\u00eb nd\u00ebrronin kurs dhe t\u00eb rifillonin politikat me norma interesi super-t\u00eb-ul\u00ebta. Kjo nga ana e vet, nd\u00ebrseu p\u00ebrdredhje t\u00eb krahut p\u00ebr nj\u00eb epok\u00eb t\u00eb re var\u00ebsie ndaj bankava qendrore. A do t\u00eb kthehemi ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb n\u00eb koh\u00ebra \u201cnormale\u201d, me tregje t\u00eb shk\u00ebputura prej var\u00ebsive s\u00eb tyre ndaj stimulimeve monetare e bizneseve dhe me tregti t\u00eb pacenuar nga zgjedhje t\u00eb paparashikueshme?<\/span><\/p>

Pas pandemis\u00eb s\u00eb virusit korona, thirrje t\u00eb tilla munden t\u00eb ting\u00ebllojn\u00eb vet\u00ebm t\u00eb lezetshme. Tashm\u00eb e dim\u00eb se \u00e7\u2019pamje ka pasiguria v\u00ebrtet radikale. Nj\u00eb goxha pjes\u00eb e madhe e popullat\u00ebs bot\u00ebrore po p\u00ebson shkundje radikale t\u00eb funksionimit baz\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00ebs s\u00eb vet. Asnj\u00ebri prej nesh nuk mund t\u00eb parashikoj\u00eb me siguri se kur do t\u00eb mund t\u00eb kthehemi n\u00eb jet\u00ebt tona para virusit korona. Mund t\u00eb shpresojm\u00eb se gj\u00ebrat do t\u2019i \u201ckthehen normalitetit\u201d, por si do ta kuptojm\u00eb nj\u00eb gj\u00eb t\u00eb till\u00eb? N\u00eb fund t\u00eb fundit, gj\u00ebrat dukeshin normale n\u00eb janar, vet\u00ebm pak jav\u00eb para se t\u00eb ndalte bota. N\u00ebse pasiguria radikale na shqet\u00ebsonte m\u00eb her\u00ebt, tani do t\u00eb jet\u00eb realitet gjithnj\u00eb e p\u00ebrher\u00eb i pranish\u00ebm i joni. \u00c7do sezon gripal do t\u00eb shihet me ankth. Duke ndjekur nj\u00eb metafor\u00eb mjek\u00ebsore, sa koh\u00eb do t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb kaloj\u00eb para se ta shpallim veten n\u00eb remision?<\/span><\/p>

Ka gjas\u00eb q\u00eb, n\u00eb situat\u00ebn pasuese t\u00eb izolimit, do mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb ndonj\u00eb k\u00ebrcim t\u00eb shpenzimeve. Por a mundet kjo t\u00eb vijoj\u00eb? Reagimi m\u00eb i duksh\u00ebm ndaj nj\u00eb tronditjeje si kjo q\u00eb po p\u00ebrjetojm\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb zmbrapsemi. Nj\u00eb nga zhvillimet e habitshme q\u00eb prej 2008-s ka qen\u00eb tkurrja e borxhit p\u00ebrmes shitjes s\u00eb aseteve nga familjet amerikane. Konsumatori amerikan, burimi m\u00eb i madh marr\u00eb ve\u00e7mas i k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb bot\u00ebrore, \u00ebsht\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb qartazi m\u00eb i matur. Investimet e bizneseve kan\u00eb qen\u00eb t\u00eb plog\u00ebta, ashtu si\u00e7 ka qen\u00eb rritja e produktivitetit. Ngadal\u00ebsimi nuk qe kufizuar vet\u00ebm n\u00eb per\u00ebndim. Edhe tregjet n\u00eb lulzim qen\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsuar. K\u00ebt\u00eb e quajt\u00ebm stanjacion afat-gjat\u00eb.<\/span>
N\u00ebse p\u00ebrgjigjja nga ana e biznesit dhe e familjeve ndaj tronditjes s\u00eb paprecedent t\u00eb virusit korona \u00ebsht\u00eb turrja drejt siguris\u00eb, kjo vet\u00ebm do t\u2019i shum\u00ebfishoj\u00eb forcat e stanjacionit. N\u00ebse p\u00ebrgjigja publike ndaj borxheve t\u00eb akumuluara nga kriza jan\u00eb masat shtr\u00ebnguese, kjo do t\u2019i p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsoj\u00eb gj\u00ebrat. N\u00eb vend t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj, \u00ebsht\u00eb me vend t\u00eb b\u00ebjm\u00eb thirrje p\u00ebr qeveri m\u00eb aktive dhe vizionare q\u00eb t\u00eb udh\u00ebheqin n\u00eb shtegdaljen nga kriza. Por pyetja \u00ebsht\u00eb, sigurisht, se \u00e7far\u00eb forme do t\u00eb marr\u00eb kjo dhe se cilat forca politike do ta kontrollojn\u00eb at\u00eb.<\/span>
______________<\/span>
Adam Tooze \u00ebsht\u00eb profesor dhe drejtor i Institutit Europian n\u00eb Universitetin e Kolumbias. Libri i tij i fundit \u00ebsht\u00eb Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World<\/em> dhe tani po punon n\u00eb shkrimin e nj\u00eb historie t\u00eb kriz\u00ebs klimatike.<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Autori: Adam Tooze, publikuar me 9 prill 2020, n\u00eb revist\u00ebn Foreign Policy |P\u00ebrktheu: Pavjo Gjini | Redaktoi: Genc Shehu T\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e fundit nga ShBA-ja provojn\u00eb se bota \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb r\u00ebnien e lir\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb thik\u00ebt se kurdo \u2013 dhe manualet e vjetra ekonomike dhe politike nuk vlejn\u00eb m\u00eb.Teksa filloi mbyllja prej koronavirusit, impulsi i par\u00eb ishte p\u00ebr t\u00eb m\u00ebtuar analogji historike \u2013 1914, 1929, 1941? Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb jav\u00ebt kaluan, ajo q\u00eb doli gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb n\u00eb pah ishte risia historike e tronditjes n\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebn po jetojm\u00eb. Si rezultat i pandemis\u00eb s\u00eb virusit korona, ekonomia amerikane pritet t\u00eb tkurret me rreth 25%, po aq sa n\u00eb Depresionin e Madh. Por nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb tkurrja e pas 1929-s u shtri n\u00eb nj\u00eb periudh\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb se kat\u00ebr vite, shp\u00ebrndarja e koronavirusit do t\u00eb ndodh\u00eb p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb tre muajve t\u00eb ardhsh\u00ebm. Kurr\u00eb nuk ka patur nj\u00eb karambol t\u00eb k\u00ebtill\u00eb. Ka di\u00e7ka t\u00eb re n\u00eb faqe t\u00eb tok\u00ebs. Dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb tmerruese. Vet\u00ebm pes\u00eb jav\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb, n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb marsit, papun\u00ebsia n\u00eb ShBA ishte n\u00eb pika rekord t\u00eb ulta. Deri nga fundi i marsit ajo spikati diku rreth 13%. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb shifra m\u00eb e lart\u00eb e regjistruar prej Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore. Nuk e dim\u00eb shifr\u00ebn reale meq\u00eb sistemi yn\u00eb i regjistrimit t\u00eb papun\u00ebsis\u00eb nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb ngritur p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjurmuar nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb k\u00ebsaj shpejt\u00ebsie. P\u00ebr t\u00eb enjte me radh\u00eb, numri i atyre q\u00eb plot\u00ebsonin formular\u00ebt fillestar\u00eb p\u00ebr sigurimet e papun\u00ebsis\u00eb u rrit si fillim n\u00eb 3.3 milion\u00eb, pastaj n\u00eb 6.6 milion\u00eb dhe tani me 6.6 milion\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb. Si\u00e7 ka v\u00ebrejtur ekonomisti Justin Wolfers n\u00eb New York Times, me ritmin aktual papun\u00ebsia n\u00eb ShBA po rritet me af\u00ebrsisht 0.5% n\u00eb dit\u00eb. Nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e paimagjinueshme q\u00eb shifra e p\u00ebrgjithshme e papun\u00ebsis\u00eb t\u00eb mund t\u00eb arrij\u00eb 30% deri n\u00eb ver\u00eb. Lajmet e s\u00eb enjtes konfirmojn\u00eb se ekonomit\u00eb per\u00ebndimore p\u00ebrballen me nj\u00eb tronditje shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb thell\u00eb dhe t\u00eb eg\u00ebr se kan\u00eb p\u00ebrjetuar ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb deri m\u00eb tani. Ciklet e zakonshme t\u00eb biznesit p\u00ebrgjith\u00ebsisht fillojn\u00eb me sektor\u00ebt m\u00eb t\u00eb paq\u00ebndruesh\u00ebm t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb \u2013 pasurit\u00eb e patundshme, nd\u00ebrtimtaria, p\u00ebr shembull, ose inxhinieria e r\u00ebnd\u00eb q\u00eb varet nga investime biznesore \u2013 ose sektor\u00ebt q\u00eb jan\u00eb t\u00eb varur nga konkurrenca globale, si industria e automjeteve motorrik\u00eb. N\u00eb total, k\u00ebta sektor\u00eb pun\u00ebsojn\u00eb m\u00eb pak se \u00e7erekun e forc\u00ebs pun\u00ebtore. R\u00ebnia e p\u00ebrqendruar n\u00eb k\u00ebta sektor\u00eb transmetohet n\u00eb pjes\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb si tronditje e heshtur. Mbyllja prej virusit korona ndikon drejtp\u00ebrdrejt sh\u00ebrbim-shitjet, pasurit\u00eb e paluajtshme, edukimin, arg\u00ebtimin, restorantet \u2013 ku 80% e amerikan\u00ebve punojn\u00eb sot. Rrjedhimisht rezultati \u00ebsht\u00eb i menj\u00ebhersh\u00ebm dhe katastrofik. N\u00eb sektor\u00eb si i shitjeve me pakic\u00eb, i cili s\u00eb fundmi ka qen\u00eb n\u00ebn trysnin\u00eb e fort\u00eb t\u00eb konkurrenc\u00ebs online, mbyllja e p\u00ebrkohshme mund t\u00eb dal\u00eb t\u00eb jet\u00eb fatale. N\u00eb shum\u00eb raste, dyqanet e mbyllura n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb marsit nuk do t\u00eb rihapen. K\u00ebto vende pune do t\u00eb humbasin p\u00ebrgjithnj\u00eb. Miliona amerikan\u00eb dhe familjet e tyre po p\u00ebrballen me katastrof\u00ebn.Tronditja nuk kufizohet te Shtetet e Bashkuara. Shum\u00eb ekonomi europiane po zbusin efektet e izolimit duke subvencionuar pun\u00eb afat-shkurtra. Kjo do ta moderoj\u00eb spikatjen e papun\u00ebsis\u00eb. Mir\u00ebpo kolapsi n\u00eb veprimtarin\u00eb ekonomike nuk mund t\u00eb maskohet. Veriu i Italis\u00eb nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm destinacion luksoz turistik. P\u00ebrb\u00ebn 50% t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb italiane. PBB-ja gjermane pritet t\u00eb bie m\u00eb shum\u00eb sesa ajo e ShBA-s\u00eb, e t\u00ebrhequr zvarr\u00eb prej var\u00ebsis\u00eb nga eksportet. Parashikimet e fundit nga Organizata p\u00ebr Bashk\u00ebpunim dhe Zhvillim Ekonomik jan\u00eb apokaliptike p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjith\u00eb pa dallim. M\u00eb e goditura prej t\u00eb gjithave mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb Japonia, edhe pse virusi ka patur ndikim t\u00eb moderuar atje. N\u00eb vendet e pasura t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn mund t\u00eb tentojm\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrllogarisim af\u00ebrsisht d\u00ebmin. Kina ishte e para e cila nisi izolimin, m\u00eb 23 janar. Shifrat e fundit zyrtare tregojn\u00eb 6.2% papun\u00ebsi n\u00eb Kin\u00eb, numri m\u00eb i lart\u00eb prej kur ka nisur regjistrimi n\u00eb vitet \u201890, kur Partia Komuniste Kineze me hezitime pranoi se papun\u00ebsia nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb problem vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr bot\u00ebn kapitaliste. Por kjo shif\u00ebr qartazi \u00ebsht\u00eb zvog\u00eblim flagrant i kriz\u00ebs n\u00eb Kin\u00eb. Jo-zyrtarisht ndoshta rreth 205 milion\u00eb pun\u00ebtor\u00eb emigrant\u00eb jan\u00eb liruar me leje, m\u00eb shum\u00eb se \u00e7ereku i forc\u00ebs pun\u00ebtore kineze. Pyetja e \u00e7dokujt \u00ebsht\u00eb si mundet dikush t\u00eb p\u00ebrllogaris\u00eb d\u00ebmin p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb indiane nga izolimi i beft\u00eb 21-ditor nga Kryeministri Narendra Modi. Prej forc\u00ebs pun\u00ebtore indiane 471 milion\u00ebshe, vet\u00ebm 19% mbulohen nga sigurimet shoq\u00ebrore, 2 nga 3 nuk kan\u00eb kontrata formale pun\u00ebsimi dhe t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn 100 milion\u00eb jan\u00eb pun\u00ebtor\u00eb migrant\u00eb. Shum\u00eb prej tyre jan\u00eb shpjer\u00eb me turr n\u00ebp\u00ebr fshatrat nga vin\u00eb. Asgj\u00eb e till\u00eb nuk ka ndodhur prej ndarjes s\u00eb 1947-s.Pasojat ekonomike prej k\u00ebtyre dramave t\u00eb shp\u00ebrmasuara njer\u00ebzore sfidojn\u00eb \u00e7far\u00ebdolloj llogarie. Kemi mbetur me statistik\u00ebn ton\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebrzitshme, por megjithat\u00eb jo m\u00eb pak t\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonshme, q\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb vit, p\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb q\u00eb kur filluan t\u00eb llogariten pas Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb deri diku t\u00eb besueshme t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e PBB-ve, ekonomit\u00eb e tregut n\u00eb lul\u00ebzim do t\u00eb tkurren. Nj\u00eb model i t\u00ebr\u00eb i zhvillimit ekonomik global ka frenuar pinc\u00eb n\u00eb vend. Ky kolaps nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb rezultat i nj\u00eb krize financiare. Nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb as rezultat i drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb i pandemis\u00eb. Kolapsi \u00ebsht\u00eb rezultat i nj\u00eb zgjedhjeje t\u00eb lir\u00eb t\u00eb politik\u00ebb\u00ebrjes, \u00e7ka \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb vetvete rr\u00ebnj\u00ebsisht risi. Mesa duket, \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e leht\u00eb t\u00eb ndal\u00ebsh nj\u00eb ekonomi sesa ta stimulosh at\u00eb. Por p\u00ebrpjekjet q\u00eb po b\u00ebhen p\u00ebr zbutjen e efekteve jan\u00eb vet\u00eb historikisht t\u00eb paprecedent\u00eb. N\u00eb Shtetet e Bashkuara, paketa stimuluese e Kongresit e kaluar vet\u00ebm ca dit\u00eb pas fillimit t\u00eb izolimit \u00ebsht\u00eb me shum\u00eb distanc\u00eb m\u00eb e madhja n\u00eb historin\u00eb e koh\u00ebs s\u00eb paqes s\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb. An\u00eb e mban\u00eb bot\u00ebs, v\u00ebrehen l\u00ebvizje p\u00ebr t\u2019i hapur kuletat. Gjermania konservatore n\u00eb politika fiskale ka shpallur emergjenc\u00eb dhe ka hequr limitin mbi borxhin publik. Marr\u00eb s\u00eb bashku, po d\u00ebshmojm\u00eb p\u00ebrpjekjen m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb kombinuar fiskale t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmarr\u00eb q\u00eb prej Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore. Efektet e saj do t\u00eb ndihen n\u00eb jav\u00ebt dhe muajt n\u00eb vazhdim. Sakaq \u00ebsht\u00eb e qart\u00eb se dora e par\u00eb e tyre ka gjas\u00eb t\u00eb mos mjaftoj\u00eb. Detyr\u00eb edhe m\u00eb urgjente \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb parandalojm\u00eb q\u00eb ngadal\u00ebsimi t\u00eb kthehet n\u00eb 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